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NG to borrow P180B from domestic market in July

THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT (NG) plans to borrow P180 billion from the domestic market in July, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said on Tuesday.

Next month’s borrowing plan is 2.78% lower than the P185-billion program for June. Actual borrowings for June reached P172.989 billion, which is 6.49% below the program.

Broken down, the government will offer P5 billion worth of 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day T-bills on July 3, 10, 17, and 24.

For the long-term tenors, the BTr will auction off P30 billion in nine-year T-bonds on July 4, and P30 billion in 15-year T-bonds on July 11.

It also will offer P30 billion in six-year debt papers on July 18, and P30 billion in seven-year bonds on July 25.

“The lower National Government borrowing plan for July 2023 may reflect the lower amount of maturing government securities/Treasury bonds versus June 2023,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message. 

He also attributed the slightly lower borrowing plan to the recent improvement in tax revenue collections in recent months, and “more disciplined” spending.

Data from the Department of Finance (DoF) showed revenue collections jumped by 10.83% to P1.59 trillion in the January-to-May period, from P1.44 trillion recorded in the same period a year ago.

Demand for T-bills could be weaker this month as the US Federal Reserve and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) have signaled they may not cut rates this year, China Banking Corp. Chief Economist Domini S. Velasquez said in a Viber message.

BSP Governor Felipe M. Medalla on Friday signaled the central bank would probably keep its key policy rate unchanged at near 16-year high for the rest of the year.

“Waiting is the better strategy. Maybe the optimal waiting time is up to January or February if current conditions remain,” he told Bloomberg Television on Friday, a day after the Monetary Board left benchmark interest rates steady.

Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell has also signaled the central bank is not done with its aggressive tightening cycle, after policy makers held rates steady earlier this month. The next Fed meeting will be on July 25-26.

“On yields, we will likely see sideways movement this July with offsetting impact from lower domestic inflation and a possible hike from the Fed at their July meeting,” Ms. Velasquez said.

Headline inflation slowed to 6.1% in May from 6.6% in April. For the first five months, the consumer price index averaged 7.5%, still well above the BSP’s 2-4% target and 5.4% forecast for the year.

The gross domestic borrowing program this year is set at P1.654 trillion, composed of P54.1 billion in T-bills and P1.6 trillion in fixed-rate T-bonds.

The government borrows from local and external sources to help fund a budget deficit capped at 6.1% of the gross domestic product this year. — AMCS

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