Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

Economy

PHL, India return to pre-pandemic levels by end-2022 uncertain

MOODY’S ANALYTICS said the recovery in the Philippines and India will lag the rest of the Asia-Pacific (APAC), with both countries struggling to restore their economies to pre-pandemic levels by the end of next year.

In a note issued Wednesday, “The APAC Economy: Looking Forward to 2021,” Moody’s Analytics Chief Asia-Pacific Economist Steven Cochrane said in the case of the Philippines, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak remains uncontained, while the government’s stimulus spending is among the smallest in the region.

In the report, Moody’s Analytics downgraded its 2020 gross domestic product forecast for the Philippines to a contraction of 9.9% from the 8.2% contraction it projected in November.

It now expects the economy to grow 4.5% this year and 6.2% in 2022.

“Much of the region will have regained all of its lost output by the end of 2021, although India and the Philippines will struggle to reach this benchmark by the end of 2022,” it said.

On Wednesday, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said at a forum that the Philippines is expected to recover the economic output lost last year by mid-2022.

Mr. Cochrane said the region is poised to bounce back stronger than the rest of the world as most countries in the region have contained their outbreaks, except for the Philippines and Indonesia. He added that the region’s manufacturing supply chains are focused on goods in demand during the recovery phase, like computers, mobile phones, technology equipment, pharmaceuticals and protective gear.

Accommodative monetary policy by central banks in the region will also help fast-track the rebound, coupled with large recovery packages.

He said the Philippines and India will lag their peers because the two governments were “least committed to fiscal stimulus, even though they were the two most hard-hit economies from COVID-19 and their subsequent lengthy and strict quarantine policies.”

The note also cited the region’s relatively fast action in procuring COVID-19 vaccines.

“An important exception is the Philippines, which has made little progress so far,” it added.

Citing data from the Duke Global Health Innovation Center, Moody’s Analytics noted that only the Philippines has not yet bought any COVID-19 vaccines out of the 21 economies tracked.

“Currently, however, there remains a risk that the smaller emerging markets in APAC will be among the last to have enough vaccine doses,” Mr. Cochrane said.

He said the region could also benefit from an expected foreign policy shift when President-elect Joseph R. Biden, Jr. takes office this month.

“Yet whether still struggling to gain lost output or expanding their economies to new heights, all countries within APAC will grow in the coming year. Risks to the outlook include the perniciousness of COVID-19, which could cause deeper economic shutdowns in Europe and North America that would staunch the global trade in goods that is so important to the APAC economy.” — Beatrice M. Laforga

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Get the daily email that makes reading the news actually enjoyable. Stay informed and entertained, for free.
Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

Latest

Economy

PHILIPPINE SHARES may move sideways this week amid an expected rate hike by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) at its Aug. 18 meeting...

Economy

THE PESO may strengthen this week on expectations that the central bank will raise benchmark rates anew at its meeting on Thursday.  The local...

Economy

THE Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) said it considers a downgraded investment growth target for 2022 of 6-7% to be within reach after investment...

Economy

NORWAY’s ambassador said the Philippines is a potential destination for Norwegian businesses, but their interest in renewable projects here will depend on the industry’s...

Economy

THE government’s chief economic planner said the Philippines must minimize its exposure in case the geopolitical situation deteriorates, with analysts citing the potential of...

Economy

THE new president of the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) is a career official in the agency and the first woman to head...

You May Also Like

Investing

Having a good Instagram marketing agency to back up your Instagram account is an absolute must going into the new year. With competition stronger...

Economy

Ivermectin, an existing drug against parasites including head lice, has had a checkered history when it comes to treating COVID-19. The bulk of studies...

Investing

Insomnia is the most common sleep disorder in the global population. Therefore, it is a problem that many people suffer or have suffered throughout...

Investing

Instagram still holds the top spot for social media in terms of building brand reputation and expanding business potential. Every day, more and more...

Disclaimer: SmartRetirementReport.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively "The Company") do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Copyright © 2021 SmartRetirementReport. All Rights Reserved.